Could be Make or Break Week ???

[Hanover Bill]

With all of the posts about late arrivals and low numbers we may be coming to a make or break point for ASY birds this season. With summer like weather forecast for my area in Western Pa. from mid week on, if we don't see an influx of Martins it may be time to begin the discussions about what may have befallen the older birds, either pre-migration or during the migration.

This will be an important discussion to have if there is a problem, knowing what it is may go a long way toward avoiding the same thing in the future.

Let's hope that it's just a very late migration, and that in a couple of weeks we will have forgotten all about our concerns, but for now one can't help but be concerned.

Hanover Bill.

[ToyinPA]

Bill:

I just got a new ASY Male yesterday afternoon. I still have not seen "Adam", who has been my Alpha male for many years. Could be he has passed on. I don't rememebr how many years he has been here, but it was a lot. His mate, "Eve" got killed by a starling last year.

I went back over my records & here's what I had for the last 5 years:

2016:
First arrived March 31. Count as of April 24: 12- 8M/4F

2015:
First arrived April 4. Count as of April 24: 7 - 5M/2F

2014:
First arrived April 2. Count as of April 24: 6 - 4M/2F

2013:
First arrival April 10. Count as of April 24. 7 - 6M/1F.

2012:
First arrival March 29. Count as of April 24: 13 - 8M/4F/1SY F

So far this season (2017)....First arrived April 6. Count as of today: 6 - 4M/2F.

It looks like when I had early arrival (March), I had higher numbers early.

This has been a bad year for migration tho. Many bad storms in the deep southern states, a blizzard in the north & lots of rain. A major lack of southerly winds to push them north. These weather conditions do not allow for good feeding days. I will say those that have arrived so far, look in good heath, unlike some I've had in the past that looked like they were battered & beaten getting here.

This week, into the first 2 weeks of May, arrivals should really picked up. If my numbers don't increase in the next 2 weeks, then I'll be worried something happened to them.

Toy in PA

[Hanover Bill]

Agree Toy, that the numbers have to pick up dramatically in the next couple of weeks or our concerns will certainly be warranted.

Thankfully it was a very good year for fledges last season, so if the older birds don't show, hopefully the SY birds will arrive in large enough numbers to offset the losses.

Hanover Bill.

[stan davison]

I am in Tulsa Oklahoma I am short 18 pair as of today. I had 1 Asy female grounded and she is at the rehabber and I lost another Asy female to a vehicle hit and run. I have a few unmated Asy males and one single Subbie male. I won't complain because I do have 20 pair nesting and a few on eggs. I worry my colony is on the decline. I will update if I get new arrivals. This is a strange year to say the least.

[Okie]

Stan. Any subbies yet?

[Dave Reynolds]

Bill. ---- Sure hope they show up soon for ya... That is odd that you have not had a pair show this year... Four to five more weeks before the main group of Subbie come through my area, here in the Southeastern Ohio Valley... Good Luck.

Dave

[JoeD]

Bill: I agree if we do not get an influx of ASY birds by May 1st we should be very concerned!
I have about 5 pair now - usually about 25 pair by this time. I have a very well managed site and last year was great!
Over the past week or so I was expecting a significant increase but that did not happen.
Time will tell!

[belpre gary]

My numbers are also down and I hope that I get an increase from the SY 's . As Dave Reynolds said ,we should see an increse in the next week or two here in the Ohio valley .